References: “Want to improve your performance? View uncertainty as info, not a threat

Here’s a collection of articles about uncertainty, learning and adaptive leadership for uncertain times as of November 2, 2025 when I wrote this article for the Forbes Coaches Council about reframing uncertainty as information, not a threat.

1. Neuroscience of uncertainty and prediction error
• Aitchison, L., Jegminat, J., Menendez, J. A., Pfister, J.‑P., Pouget, P., & Latham, P. E. (2014). Synaptic plasticity as Bayesian inference. arXiv preprint.

Proposes that synaptic plasticity functions as Bayesian inference—synapses encode and adjust learning-rates based on uncertainty.

• Mathys, C., Daunizeau, J., Friston, K. J., & Stephan, K. E. (2011). A Bayesian foundation for individual learning under uncertainty. Frontiers in Human Neuroscience, 5:39.

A foundational computational neuroscience paper linking uncertainty, volatility, and adaptive learning-rate modulation.

• Herkenhoff, K., et al. (2023). Uncertainty‑modulated prediction errors in cortical microcircuits. eLife.

Shows how cortical circuits modulate prediction errors through uncertainty estimates, providing neural basis for adaptive learning.

• Nassar, M. R., & Frank, M. J. (2020). Expecting the unexpected: a review of learning under uncertainty across development. Developmental Cognitive Neuroscience.

Reviews developmental differences in how brains adapt to uncertainty, highlighting flexible prediction error processing.

• Uncertainty alters the balance between incremental learning and episodic memory. (2023). eLife.

Demonstrates how volatile environments shift brain systems between incremental learning and episodic memory.

• Interindividual Brain and Behavior Differences in Adaptation to Unexpected Uncertainty. (2022). MDPI.

Examines brain connectivity correlates of exploration versus exploitation when facing unexpected uncertainty.

2. Uncertainty as trigger for learning and neural plasticity
• Uncertainty in learning and decision‑making: Introduction to the special issue. (2023). Psychonomic Bulletin & Review.

Summarizes how uncertainty drives cognitive flexibility, learning, and exploratory behavior.

• Monosov, I.E., et al. (2020). Orbitofrontal cortex neurons encode uncertainty and promote adaptive decision-making. Nature Neuroscience, 23 (4).

Uncertainty actives adaptive neural circuits of resilience cognitive flexibility.

• Monosov, I.E. (2020) How Outcome Uncertainty Mediates Attention, Learning, and Decision-Making. Trends in Neuroscience, 43 (10) :795-809.

Explores how neuronal circuits in primates represent uncertainty about future outcomes and how that guides attention, information seeking, learning and decision-making.

• Gkintoni, E., Vassilopoulos, S. P., & Nikolaou, G. (2025). Brain‑Inspired Multisensory Learning: A Systematic Review of Neuroplasticity and Cognitive Outcomes in Adult Multicultural and Second Language Acquisition. Biomimetics, 10(6):397.

Shows how novel and ambiguous stimuli in language learning contexts engage neuroplasticity.

• Newly discovered brain cells are wired for uncertainty. (2025). UCLA Newsroom.

Reports discovery of neurons specialized for uncertainty processing, crucial for flexible decision-making.

• ‘Zone of uncertainty’ in the brain influences its ability to form new memories. (2023). University of Freiburg.

Finds that uncertain contexts can enhance memory formation and learning capacity.

3. Behavioral & emotional regulation under uncertainty
• Tervo, D.G.R., et al. (2021). Behavioral variability through stochastic choice and learning under uncertainty. Neuron Communications, 12 (1)

Uncertainty can be a trigger for adaptive behaviors and neural flexibility.

• Carleton, R. N. (2016). Into the unknown: A review and meta‑analysis of research on intolerance of uncertainty. Journal of Anxiety Disorders, 39, 30‑43.

Comprehensive review linking intolerance of uncertainty (IU) to anxiety and maladaptive coping.

• The Intolerance of Uncertainty Inventory: Validity and Comparison of Scoring Methods to Assess Individuals Screening Positive for Anxiety and Depression. (2018). Journal of Anxiety Disorders.

Validates a core measure of IU, widely used in uncertainty-related behavioral research.

• The effect of intolerance of uncertainty on anxiety and depression, and their symptom networks, during the COVID-19 pandemic. (2023). BMC Psychiatry.

Analyzes IU’s role in mediating anxiety and depression during prolonged uncertainty.

• The chain mediating role of psychological resilience and neuroticism between intolerance of uncertainty and perceived stress. (2023). BMC Psychiatry.

Shows how resilience buffers the stress effects of uncertainty intolerance.

• Intolerance of Uncertainty causally affects indecisiveness. (2023). Simply Psychology summary.

Highlights causal evidence that high intolerance of uncertainty impairs decision-making flexibility.

4. Leadership, adaptive decision‑making & organizations 

• Klein, G., & Delegach, M. (2023). Charismatic Leadership Is Not One Size Fits All: The Moderation Effect of Intolerance to Uncertainty and Furlough Status During the COVID‑19 Pandemic. Journal of Leadership & Organizational Studies, 30(3):297–313.

Empirical study showing context-dependent leader effectiveness influenced by followers’ uncertainty tolerance.

• Lapshun, A., & Fusch, G. E. (2023). Times of Uncertainties Require Embracing Leadership and Feedback. The Qualitative Report, 28(3).

Qualitative exploration emphasizing feedback loops and adaptive leadership during uncertain periods.

• McCormick et al. (2023). Development and validation of the Leadership Learning Agility Scale (LLAS).

Defines and measures leaders’ capacity to learn from experience and apply insights in new, uncertain contexts.

• Developing a resilient, adaptable workforce for an uncertain future. (2024). McKinsey & Company.

Synthesis of research and practitioner insights on building organizational resilience and adaptability.